In the end, the ASX 200 went up 2% for the March quarter just
gone.
The gain came in the last seven days.
Can things keep running in April?
History would suggest so. April and December are the two best
months on the ASX.
But, as Warren Buffett says, if history had all the answers,
then the richest people would be librarians.
For example, now we have OPEC+ sticking their oar in the
water.
The oil group just announced a surprise one-million-barrel per
day cut to stabilise the oil market.
Personally, were I the president of the US, I would implement a
perpetual F U policy toward OPEC and release double the amount of
oil from the US Strategic Reserve for every cut they make.
Could these OPEC guys be any stupider?
They shift a product that the Western world now despises and is
actively trying to make redundant.
I would have thought their best policy would be to keep their
head down and grab what they can from whatever time they have left
before renewables and electric cars send them into irrelevance.
And theyre trying to stick the world for more cash when it has
an inflation problem?
Oil will get a boost in the short term. Long term, this decision
does nothing but incentivise the West to flick these losers off as
quickly as possible.
Does OPECs move change any thinking for the RBA regarding the
next monetary policy decision?
I doubt it, but it probably doesnt help.
The market thinks that the RBA will go on hold.
Stocks could be vulnerable to a fall, in the short term, if the
RBA do put in one more rise.
However, none of this changes my game plan. I think now is a
superb opportunity to be buying depressed shares all over the
place.
I saw an excellent presentation on this recently.
Small caps, for example, are now in the second worst period
since 2001. For 16 months they have underperformed against Aussie
large-cap stocks.
I dont doubt it for a second, either. Ive watched it all play
out in real time.
But heres why I get excited too.
Look at how small caps can surge when the market wind gets back
behind them:
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